Politics are never certain in Iran, and, as I see it, Iranians often approach and analyze politics differently than Americans do anyway. Their thought process is often quite complex and they always come up with theories I haven’t heard before.

For example, when it comes to the U.S. elections, someone in Tehran told me he thought Barack Obama would be worse for Iran than John McCain, because Obama would likely be more able to build international consensus than his Republican rival. And Obama might use that skill to do things not favorable for Iran.

But in terms of Iranian politics, my Iranian friends tell me it is impossible to guess what will happen in their 2009 election. The supreme leader had so far backed Ahmadinejad. But presumably that could change.

In terms of the people, you hear that Ahmadinejad is popular with Iranians in smaller villages and remote regions of Iran. He’s promised to put the oil wealth on their tables. Ahmadinejad has doled out lots of handouts and loans, but some say that hasn’t really boosted the quality of life of poorer and even average Iranians because inflation is so high. Ahmadinejad supporters claim the whole world’s economy is in dire straits so Iran’s leader shouldn’t be blamed. His detractors say he has mismanaged the economy. Official inflation figures are 28%.

There are those in Iran who do not like the style of this man who rails against global arrogance and Zionism. There are Iranians who would prefer a more conciliatory tone vis a vis the rest of the world, and better relations with the west particularly.

But there are lots of Iranians who are proud of the man who has stood up so outspokenly against the west. They like his revolutionary style and believe he will keep the regimes values alive. They like that he is pious and lives a simple life.

There are plenty of presidential contenders but only two that observers can see being able to pull off a resounding victory — Ahmadinejad and former president Mohammad Khatami. Khatami was a reformist and while some in Iran believe he didn’t carry reforms far enough, his supporters liked what he stood for and believed he was good for the image of the country.

It is far from certain that Khatami will run again—and if he doesn’t, which reformist candidates will be allowed to run.

The whole issue of U.S.-Iran relations hangs in the air here as never before. That is possibly because of rumors that the u.s. might at some point in the not too distant future open a U.S. interests section in Iran after 30 years of not having diplomatic relations with the Islamic republic. I had heard anecdotes of Iranians literally dancing when they heard the Americans might be back here. But when I arrived, and went to the old U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, i was chased away by some men who seemed to be in charge of the place when i tried to take pictures. They said the message was this place belongs to Iran. Hardly the sort of encounter that gives one hope that American diplomats could be back in Tehran soon. But also a good illustration of the paradoxes in this society.

People here say President Ahmadinejad would like more than any other president to start negotiations with and possibly re-establish relations with the United States, and that he has sent numerous signs to that effect, but that they have all fallen on deaf ears. That may be the case, as Iranian signals are sometimes hard for westerners to read. Or it may just be that whatever message he’s sending is not well received for reasons I won’t go into here. But which you can probably guess. In any event, these are interesting times, and my sense on the ground here is that most Iranians would like to see their country doing business and having relations with the United States.