Benjamin Netanyahu

It’s election day here in Israel and the only guess that anyone can lob out there is that Benjamin Netanyahu will probably end up Prime Minister, but that doesn’t mean he will win the election.

There are a number of forces here at work, which create a very unpredictable dynamic in a multi-party coalition government.

First, let’s talk about Hamas. Back when Ariel Sharon initiated the pullout from the Gaza strip, Netanyahu spoke against it (after initially voting for it).  His Likud party defected from Sharon saying Gaza would become a radical Islamic sub-state and the rockets fired at the Gaza settlements would one day reach towns like Ashkelon.  Netanyahu doesn’t often campaign on the “I told you so” platform. He lets other people say it for him.  However, Israeli voters are so tired of Palestinians and the rocket fire they have gone even farther right than Netanyahu and Likud. Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Betenu (Israel is our Home) party have grown from a far right fringe party to a major player in Israeli politics. They have passed Ehud Barak and the Labor party to poll as the 3rd highest vote getters in Israel.

Tzippi Livni

Here’s where its gets spooky for Netanyahu.  Tzippi Livni and the Kadima party are closely trailing Netanyahu and Likud. Lieberman and Yisrael Betenu could very well split the vote leaving Kadima with more seats in the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) than any single party. Livni would be at the top of the party.

But that doesn’t guarantee she’ll be Prime Minister.

Israeli law says the President, Shimon Peres, appoints a Knesset Member to form a governing coalition based on who will be most able to put together a majority of votes.  That person becomes Prime Minister.  Livni already failed to assemble a majority once and there isn’t much to indicate she would be more successful now.

Avigdor Lieberman

Kadima and Labor, favor ceding more land to make a Palestinian state and a two state peace deal possible.  In light of the continued rocket fire from Hamas, Israeli voters don’t feel like ceding much of anything to the Palestinians.  So, even if Likud doesn’t win, the right could still end up with the most seats in the Knesset.  Therefore, the top right wing politician would be the most able to assemble a majority.  The burden would fall on Peres to appoint Netanyahu, even if he’s not the top vote getter.

Ehud Barak

Still, Netanyahu could end up the clear winner.  The moderate Israeli voting public is remarkably undecided and uninspired by the menu of potential leaders presented to it. Those voters may not show up to vote.  Given the recent conflict in Gaza, The recent war with Hizbollah and the Israeli soldier still held hostage in the Gaza strip, right wingers who favor a hard stance against Palestinians are motivated and they’re arriving at the ballot boxes.