By John Fiegener
Fox News Coordinating Producer, Iraq

Everybody sees a crack.

If the Middle East were a neighborhood street, Iran would be the large house with the cracked foundation.

Neighbors would not be terribly displeased to see the distress this crack is causing to the owners of Iran, they might even chuckle at the misfortune of those fussy owners who have meddled in their lives, they would know that even if the crack were cemented over and painted it would still be a crack, and at night, as they fell asleep, they might be wondering how such a crack might affect them.

The reaction to events in Iran is not overly reported in neighboring Iraq or in other countries across the Middle East. Official comments have been guarded, with Iraq’s president sending a short message to congratulate president Ahmadinejad for his victory; “I am confident that friendly ties binding our two countries will grow stronger during the years to come, to the interest of the people of both sides, and peace security and stability in the region.” Fairly neutral stuff in diplomatic terms.

Everyone knows that Ahmadinejad could in fact be the president of Iran for another term and all the neighbors are taking a wait and see attitude. There is also a tradition in the region of not being overtly involved in the “internal affairs” of neighbors. Saddam Hussein crossed that line with his invasion of Kuwait in 1991 and paid the price.

Iraqis in private are more direct about their view of events in their neighboring country. Some say the Khameini and Ahmadinejad regime has been too arrogant in its dealing with Iraq since the fall of Saddam, playing too many games on Iraqi soil in a contest to win influence and outmaneuver the US in Iraq. But stability is good for business, in a year that has been bad for business, and that is what truly preoccupies many Iraqis and others in the region now. So no one is protesting on the Middle East Street in support of free and fair elections in Iran.

Everyone now sees that Iran has a cracked foundation, whatever the outcome of weeklong demonstrations and violence on the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities. The regime has clearly lost the support of many of its bright, professional, young people. Neighbors understand that it will be a different Iran no matter what happens that they will deal with. A more insecure Iranian regime might be less inclined to meddle in the affairs of the region, or not. Neighbors may gain more favorable terms in bargaining with a weakened Iranian leadership, or not.

And what must worry many of the neighbors as they fall asleep at night is the possibility of the crack in Iran spreading to other homes on the street. People and rulers around the region who have lived under autocratic regimes will be especially concerned about the perception of rigged elections, a violent backlash and crackdown.

So the neighbors will keep watching, hoping, and worrying about events in Iran for years to come following last week’s elections.