Oleg Deripaska’s fortunes have plummeted.  Controlling dozens of factories in Russia he was worth an estimated almost 30 billion dollars in 2008.  This year he’s worth  2 billion according to another estimate, because most of his industry is copnnected to sectors hit the hardest by the Worlds financial crisis, ie auto manufacturing, aluminum and steel and construction. His advisors say he was worth almost 40 billion and didn’t lose quite as much as some say, but admit the plunge in his fortunes are dizzying.   I met Deripaska a couple of weeks after this normally low profile Oligarch had been publicly lambasted by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for failing to keep Russians employed at a cement factory near St. Petersburg .

The Kremlin is frightened of civil unrest in Russia because of the economic crisis and it’s easy to blame businessmen instead of shouldering  political responsibility.

Putin called Deripaska and others at the meeting guilty of holding ordinary people hostage to their ambitions and greed.

When I asked Deripaska if he was in turn angry with Putin he smiled but carefully answered no.  The last rich Russian to criticize Putin went to jail.

He told me “it was not of course 100% my fault but I felt responsible, maybe we can do more to change and modernize this facility quickly, but unfortunately the crisis hit demand in construction, in cement.”

Deripska may be many things, he is certainly not any ones fool.   He is a nuclear physicist by education.   He built a huge empire in Russia and knows the innermost workings of the Country.  He is frankly likable and reflective on his Countries past and future and  he makes a few stunning observations;

Unemployment in Russia ?  The Kremlin says its stopped growing and is somewhere around 7%.  Deripaska says it’s really 10% and predicts it could grow saying “we are still on the way down, it will be a very hard time. Unemployment could hit 15 million people, which is 20% and it’s just reality. Demand very weak and economy still needs to find a bottom.”

On Government expecting private business to act as a social net?

Deripaska says “That’s Russia . If you want to benefit on a  20% return on your investment every year you need to be prepared to deal with this issue.  In developed Countries where processes established for the last 100 years you can rely on municipal services, on police, on education system. In Russia where we hade everything restarted 18 years ago, original principles and original system couldn’t be effective now.”  IN other words the State hasn’t put in place a sufficient social net after the collapse of communism and wealthy business has to take up the slack.

On American Russian relations and President Obama’s visit to Moscow ;

Deripaska agrees with American experts,  “I can’t really feel”a so-called reset in relations. He says resets are not about high level meetings it has to be reflected in investment, science co-operation, education exchange, tourism.”

He says its not just about rebuilding trust but that “we didn’t have time to actually learn each other.”  Our kids he believes need to share history and science and literature, attend business schools In America.  “It has to be about people” he adds.

And finally Deripaska talks frankly about the Russian booms times when oil was good and the  fact many Russian politicians are  is still waiting for high oil prices again.

“it’s stupid, it’s a mistake, it’s the biggest mistake. We can feel maybe half the Russian Government still believes that it would be the case, and this is a huge mistake”.

Deripaska believes his Government needs to start helping the creation of small and medium business enterprise instead of focusing on taxing big oil and gas companies for revenue.

To wait for oil prices to rise he says “this may create that the Russian transition through this crisis would be longer, it should be done in 3 years and we may end up, it will be 5 maybe 7 years.”

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The headline is a new arms treaty out of the American Russian meetings in Moscow.  Russian President Obama and U.S. President Obama signed a framework treaty to lower existing agreements on nuclear warheads by a third to as low as 1500 each.

But did you know that our arms agreements with the Russians only involve nukes that reach the U.S. on ballistic missiles instead of so called tactical nukes that can be fired by artillery or cruise missile, for example at an American aircraft carrier from a Russian sub.  There are several thousand held by both sides. Smaller and much more easily sold or stolen by terrorists.  And … in Europe the U.S. still has about 200 tactical nukes at a handful of NATO bases.  They were originally there in case of war with the Soviet Union and still 20 years after the Cold war remain there.

Wisely the Obama administration is attempting to include tactical nukes in a new arms agreement to replace START which expires in Dec.

An insider on the American arms negotiating team tells me what was very important in these meetings with the Russians – the Russians agreed to have discussions to develop co-operation on missile defenses – huge because the Russians agreed to that directly with the President.They had been refusing until American got rid of the 3rd site (Radar in the Czerch Republic and Missile launchers in Poland)  to even discuss co-operation.

So now there are two tracks – The follow on agreement to Start and then discussions departmentally on how to solve the missile defense shield issue.

It all has to be done by December when Start expires.  And the Russians will never approve a new arms deal unless the ABM issue is solved.

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The Afghan air force suddenly has it’s version of guns in the sky.   Old but deadly Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters, once used to kill Afghans during the Soviet invasion are now deployed to protect the Afghan army fighting terrorists.

American air force Brig. General Walter Givhan tells me this is a proud moment for U.S. Trainers who have sowed the seeds for a rebirth of the Afghan air force.

These pictures show live fire exercises of the Mi-35’s firing weapons.  They will now be used to guard even Afghan President Karzai when he fly s in his Afghan helicopter.

The Afghan airforce now numbers about 35 aircraft ranging from helicopters to transport planes and it’s growing.

Many new Afghan pilots go to flight school in American for advanced training.

The helicopters are old but fierce and a formidable airborne force against the Taliban resurgence.

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FOX News and a gaggle of Russian press invited to the Kremlin today to cover an informal discussion between former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and President Medvedev.

But walking into the Kremlin meeting room, the so called Green Room (because … Guess what color it is)? The meeting was much more than two, but almost 20.

Among them former Secretary of State Schultz, the U.S. Ambassador, a former American Finance Minister.  And on the Russian side with Medvedev their Foreign Minister Lavrov and military officials.

They are informally discussing everything from Afghanistan to Missile defense to the Start 1 nuclear arms control treaty between America and Russia due to expire this year.

(We still have 3000 nuclear warheads respectively that can in seconds be pointed at places like Moscow and St. Peterrsburg and New York and Washington).

Nothing official in this unofficial setting. The usual “we had positive discussions”.

But interesting on the sidelines the Russian reporter who when I asked are things changing in Russia, any more press freedoms?   quickly replied “not a bit, still none”.

And what’s more is this “tandem thing”.  Russian reporters are ordered to give exactly the same coverage to President Medvedev as they are to Prime Minister Putin.
If one does something important TV must show the other doing something important and the same amount of minutes for both.
Its not a real President, but a tandem rule of the Country.

So behind the scene Kissinger met with Putin last night say sources.

Tandem diplomacy.
Tandem reporting.
Tandem problems to solve in rocky American Russian relations.

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I am driving along the Moscow embankment on the way to the “castle” as my four year old describes it, the Kremlin.

The ice has melted on the river.
And the sun is out which in Moscow in winter is so rare I am desperate to see some sunshine.

I park my car and walk past St. Basils Cathedral and honestly I don’t want to leave Red Square because its warm and hundreds of tourists are smiling and taking pictures.  Spring in Russia, finally.

The guards at Spasky Gate, the main entrance know I am coming, they check my press ID and I am led by a security man inside the Kremlin grounds.

Its a social call to see some Kremlin representatives who would probably rather not be written about, so I won’t.

But the message I get is this- “why do you press guys keep saying Russian President Medvedev is only a shadow of Prime Minister Putin”?
Its a long conversation about how Medvedev is separate and distinct and Putin does not influence the Kremlin the way everyone thinks.
Its hard to believe but that’s their position.

So let’s see.  If Medvedevs people want to deliver that message maybe Putin is fading as a Russian leader? Maybe he is not clinging to power?  Maybe a new generation of Russian leaders more open and liberal and with some respect of democracy and free speech are coming to power?

We will all wait for Spring to come to Kremlin, but it sure seems like a long dull political winter inside those walls. People who watch Russia closely are all waiting hopefully to be surprised by President Medvedev.

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Russia’s plans to host the Winter Olympics in 2014 in Sochi appear to be melting down!

This week, I followed Russia’s new opposition coalition to the Black Sea City of Sochi where the games are supposed to be staged. Russian hard line leader Vladimir Putins dream may be nothing more than that.

Most of the construction is stalled.
The two top private companies to do the building are nearly bankrupt because of the financial crisis in Russia.

While Russian TV doesn’t show it, two thousand residents have been given notices their homes will be torn down and vow to fight.

Even Russia’s Environment Minister admits the Sochi venues are an environmental disaster in the making.

Putin is now faced with an even bigger challenge. The Russian opposition under the banner of the Solidarity Movement is unifying to fight the Kremlins grip on power and opposition leaders like former world chess champ Garry Kasparov and former Deputy Prime minister during the 90’s Boris Nemtsov will stage that fight in Sochi.  Nemtsov will run for Mayor unless the Kremlin uses dirty tricks to block him.

Nemtsov told me first thing he will do is declare Sochi a no censorship zone allowing free TV and Press. First Sochi will be free and then he says Moscow.

I watched Nemtsov register to run as Mayor and his supporters think the reason the authorities didn’t try to stop him, is because Fox News was there as a witness.

Kasparov says it may be that Putin is losing his control, the Kremlin doesn’t know what to do.
And maybe, just maybe President Medvedev wants to see Putin become weakened.  Kasparov thinks the Medvedev is emerging as a real leader, to let the opposition have some success, as Putin is pushed to the fringe and a new circle of power emerges in Russia without KGB gang that now runs the Country.

Putins authoritarian vertical KGB power structure can arrest and intimidate says the opposition, but it  can’t deal with increasing numbers of Russians who see tough economic times a product of Putins lack luster authoritarian regime which did well when oil prices were sky high and now have little to offer.

Sochi is in trouble, and perhaps the first cracks in Putins power are appearing in his cherished Olympic dream.

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The Kremlin is suddenly PR savvy!

For a second week 18 European Countries have little heat because Russia and Ukraine are squabbling over the price of gas and Russia has cut Europe off.

It happens almost every winter.  Russia cuts the gas supply when Ukraine’s contract comes up, Europe suffers and that is  the Kremlins leverage to get what it wants.   (I will have more on what it wants later.)

Russia has been accused of using energy as a weapon of being an unreliable partner to Europe for energy, and frankly most analysts believe that is all true.

But this year Russia wanted to make Ukraine look like the bad guy, so they had all the pieces in place to roll out a PR campaign.   They have hired Ketchum (a Washington PR firm which services the Kremlin – how odd is that?) to massage the Western media into believing  Ukraine is stealing energy, and that Ukraine is solely to blame for the crisis.

Ketchum has distributed Putin’s statements and Gazprom’s and organized conference calls with Russian speakers etc.

Ketchum was also used to help Russia get it’s message out after the crisis with Georgia and to improve Putin’s image.  Putins image is still what it is, terrible in the West,  but for Ketchum the contract is a good one.

Prime Minister Putin’s spokespeople  were also primed ready to roll out the message “this is only about money” not politics, poor little Russia “only wants to be paid fair  market prices for gas and Ukraine keeps stealing the gas” they say.

But we all know this gas crisis started after Ukraine’s Orange revolution and if you want to know the real motives behind the crisis take very seriously the not so subtle hint yesterday made Russia’s State Gas Giant Gazprom.

Gazprom Deputy CEO Sergey Kupriyanov said the U.S. is behind the crisis because of an agreement signed in December.  The Agreement is a strategic cooperation agreement between America and Ukraine which essentially helps Ukraine towards it’s goal of joining NATO one day.

In other words Russia is furious that Ukraine may be slipping away towards the West and gas is the way it will try to fight Ukraine.  Don’t forget Putin personally supported pro-Russian candidates who failed during the Orange revolution and he wants to settle that score.

It’s not my analysis, but that of Ukraine’s President Yushchenko who say’s Russia is trying to destabilize his Country.

The Ukraine Government is not innocent in all of this.

But if you are sitting in a freezing cold apartment in Bulgaria or Bosnia or one of the 18 Countries effected by all this hot air from Moscow and Kiev that isn’t getting through the pipelines, you would be amazed by the frosty callous use of Gas by the Kremlin for political purposes wouldn’t you?

Unless those people buy the Kremlin’s and Ketchum’s explanation  this is only about the price of gas?  Of course you might  ask “Why don’t they figure out a new contract in the Spring?  Why do I have frost on my walls in winter Mr. Putin”?

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I am having lunch with Mikhail Kasyanov, the former Prime Minister of Russia, just across the bridge from the Russian White House where his old boss (Vladimir Putin) now works.

(Putin moved out of the Kremlin this year when he handed the Presidency to his Lt. Dmitri Medvedev, and he took Kasyanovs old title – Prime Minsiter – although everyone understands Putin still runs the Country.)

Kasyavnov tells me “the ruling regime is breaking it’s contract with the elite.”

What he means is vitally important in a country that has the largest nuclear stock pile in the world and is increasingly challenging Americans… again!

The Russian economy is melting down.  There are high level rumors of currency devaluation (the ruble in a nose dive). Behind the scenes, Russians with money are dumping the ruble and buying dollars. In fact, banking insiders say they are going to stop taking dollars in deposit accounts, because they can’t take anymore.

The stock market is down more than 70 percent; billions of dollars are lost.

Sources say that of the 1,500 or so banks in Moscow maybe two dozen will be left standing in the next year. Banks will fail in a big way.

Oil is down, affecting the Kremlin’s ability to spend its way out of this mess.

Capital flight – over 50 billion dollars has been transferred out of Russia in the last month, and Putin recently called in top bankers and ordered them to stop it somehow.  How?

In a country that imports 80 percent to 90 percent of its food, inflation will run 20, 30, even 40 percent next year. People who have jobs are suddenly not being paid on time, and many companies are laying off 20 to 40 percent of their employees.

Russians are used to bad news, but this is seriously bad.

So, what does that mean politically for a regime that appoints its presidents and controls press to the point that the crisis has barely been talked about?

Well, it goes like this.  Putin and his St. Petersburg KGB clan have always had a “contract,” as Kasyanov points out, with the inner and upper circles of Russia.  They could do what they wanted to democracy and human rights and, well, just about anything else while everyone got rich on oil money and corruption.

But now that everyone is getting poor very quickly, or at least falling off the ‘Forbes 500′ list like flies, the contract is broken.

That means the Russian elite are starting to look at this regime in new ways.

So, a financial guru friend of mine here says the winds of change may be blowing down the Moscow River yet again next year. But he also says to remember that when powerful regimes get cornered and are under pressure, they become extra dangerous.

It’s getting to be a dangerous time in Russia now.

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I have a submarine in my back yard in Moscow.

Well, it’s not exactly in the backyard… but close. On my morning run I bolt back across the pond, over the railway tracks, and there it is. It’s  some kind of World War II era submarine sitting in a few feet of water as part of a display in Victory Park, celebrating the allied win over Nazi Germany.

I actually did a piece to camera in front of a portion of that submarine eight years ago when the Kursk submarine went down in the Barents Sea. It was tragic.  In 2000, 118 Russian sailors killed when the torpedo section of the Kursk blew up.   The rescue effort was a farce, as old rescue submarines couldn’t hook up to the Kursk’s emergency escape hatches.

So, here we are in 2008 when the Russians announce another tragedy – this time in the Sea of Japan. The Fast attack Akula II submarine Nerpa (means seal in Russian) has had an accidental release of Freon gas – which is used to fight fires. Twenty crew members suffocate. No fire. And not only was the gas inadvertently released, but an alarm that should have sounded to notify the sailors the gas would be released so they could put on breathing masks did not work.

The Nerpa was actually built in 1991.  Then, construction was shelved because the Russians ran out of money.   They then scraped off the rust and put it in the water one week before this accident because India wanted to lease it from them.

Rusty subs and old equipment all date back to Soviet times. So, why should we fear the Russians again?

Well, we shouldn’t.  They are trying to sell weapons, and talking tough is a marketing tool. Hugo Chavez buys it.  No one else does.

They do, of course, have 3000 nuclear warheads we have to think about, but they are not about to push the launch button unless that launch button gets into the wrong hands – that’s a security issue.

But, the Russians have a strategy.  Talk tough, and you get attention.

You see, when they decided to become a normal Western democracy (or something like that) the Bush administration had a plan – ignore them.  Stop these big summits and arms control agreements and let them be.

But the Russians watched their super power status disappear.  They lost respect, and then when it came time for them to fight issues like Missile defense and NATO expansion, where was their muscle?

So, they got the idea if you scare them – they will listen.

America’s new President  should engage the Russians on arms control.  Less nuclear warheads in the world is a good thing.

We should address the need for NATO expansion, or ask ourselves what is the purpose of NATO in Georgia and Ukraine?

We should ease Russian anxiety over missile defense.

We should also pressure the Kremlin on Democracy and Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian control of the Country.

But, we should not fear them.   United States military experts know the Russian military muscle is a bit like that alarm that didn’t work on the Nerpa, or the rescue sub that couldn’t hook up to the Kursk, or that sad old submarine that sits almost in my back yard.   It’s all a symbol of yester-year and tools of the Kremlin’s smoke and mirrors game on how to get attention.

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In Baghdad in 2005, when bad was about to get a lot worse, I was called into a briefing by the American Brig. General of 1st armored Division.   He over and over again asked me, “Why are you guys in the media reporting the “big bangs in Baghdad?”  “Security is good,” he would say.   And he claimed there were only about a dozen to 15 terrorist cells in Baghdad with maybe 10 to 20 bad guys in each one.

He was a wonderful  commander when it came to moving armor down the road. A nice guy, who cared for his troops and tried to get it right.   But his assessment of the insurgency was … well … I would say either designed to fool us, or he was fooled badly himself.

So I have learned to be a little more skeptical than I already was, which after a few decades of doing this, was super skeptical to begin with.

So here we are in Afghanistan.   Violence is up 40 percent this summer.   And again, we are being told by the generals, things are going better than you think.  Except for the British Commander who say’s the war can’t be won militarily and has been accused by some of having “risk aversion.”

But here’s what we hear.  Locals say the Taliban have moved back into many provinces. They can hit and run on roads and terrorize the locals.  They are on the edge of Kabul and moving to squeeze it over the winter.

So my talk in the American Embassy with Ambassador William Wood was less about asking clever questions and getting sound bites, than it was an attempt to really understand if this is going right or about to get a lot worse.   This guy was in Colombia. He gets the Narco problem.   He understands insurgencies probably as well as any diplomat or better.

So here’s what I picked up.

- If you’re a terrorist sitting in your cave in Pakistan, the news is probably not good.   The International Community is committed to more money and more troops and those here are staying to fight the fight

- Both candidates in the U.S. election are not saying whether they will put more troops in here, but are only discussing the numbers.

- Roads, construction, are moving forward despite disruptions and that means economic improvements, although a bit slow, but improvements

- A new dam in Helmand will bring more and more power on line, which is important to Afghans where in some villages around Kabul get 2 to 4 hours of power a day.

- Corruption?  Ambassador Wood says ya, oh ya there’s a lot, but President Karzai just put in a new Interior Minister and there is some progress in fighting the dirt in Government and Police. But yes when ministers earn $16,000 annually and the drug dealers will pay 10 times that in bribes, some progress is not a solution.

-Pakistan where the insurgents rest and rearm and train and launch attacks from is waking up understanding terrorism is as much a threat to them as it is to Afghanistan.   Still a lot more has to be done.

- Brits say can’t be won militarily?   The Ambassador says he disagrees with part of the comment because, while the military solution can’t be the only ingredient to all this, it is a fight against an armed insurgency and it is a key front that has to be won. He thing’s we are winning.

Winter is coming.  The Afghan elections next year will be a target of the terrorists trying to paint a bleak picture.  The Saudis ARE brokering some kind of quiet talks with the Taliban, although it’s not what sources would describe yet as “reconciliation talks.”

It’s complicated here.  It’s been a tough year.  But the assessment on the intelligence front from the military is –- progress.

Let’s hope they are reading this right and realistically and not blowing smoke they themselves can’t see through clearly because that’s more dangerous than anything in a war and that’s what this is, a critical war.

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Shadowy details emerge — you won’t ever read about this anywhere else.

The Taliban’s top commander in Afghanistan — finally killed last year — actually got away from British Special Forces.  And the story is leaked as a case in point about how the Brits, while suddenly criticizing the counter insurgency fight in Afghanistan, may be the one’s who need a refresher course on counter insurgency tactics.

A top level Western source tells me last year the Americans get intelligence on where Dadullah who had kidnapped and killed and had a lot  blood on his hands including leading attacks on American and NATO forces,was hiding.   It came down to two compounds.  One has women and children in it.  The other is full of men.

On May 12th 2007, the American SF hit the compound with women and children.  Clean raid. No one killed.   No Dadullah.

The British SBS Special Forces hit the compound full of men. Dadullah is there.

It’s later reported Dadullah is killed in a raid by NATO and Afghan forces.

Guess what?   Dadullah escaped.  The Brits failed to seal the compound says the source.   Dadullah was wounded but ran out the back and escaped down to a river bank.  He died there on the river bank and his body was only discovered when a truck was stopped later and Taliban were discovered to be transporting his body.

British officials have been doing a lot of media this week.  Complaining the war can’t be won in Afghanistan.  A memo from the British Ambassador was leaked.  The British Commander spoke out.

American’s say the war is being won.   The Brits have a bad case of “risk aversion.”

It’s time U.S. forces say some American experts give a class on insurgency one-oh-one and SF tactics to their U.K. Colleagues.

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A ride-along with Afghan Police is the single most dangerous thing anyone can do in Afghanistan. One thousand policemen have been killed this year by insurgents and drug dealers, and they suffer casualties at three times the rate of coalition troops and the Afghan army.

What makes their job so dangerous is that they often get caught in the crossfire.

On this particular day, Kabul head of criminal investigations Gen. Ali Shah Paktiawal has been called out to investigate a French NATO attack on a civilian bus and seems stunned by the carnage. “Why do they do this?” he asks. “Why?”

NATO forces say they are often attacked on the roads, and the bus tried to overtake the French convoy even after being warned to stay back.

Paktiawal investigates almost every big attack or criminal incident in Kabul, and for that he has been targeted by insurgents and drug dealers — and perhaps even by forces within his own government.

By his own count he’s been the target of nearly a dozen assassination attempts. “They have tried to kill me 11 times, yes 11,” he said. He wears a bandage on one hand, an injury sustained in a bomb blast last month. Although he won’t specify who targeted him, he recounts other murder attempts, including a poisoning.

Kidnapping has become a commonplace in Afghanistan now, and many go unreported because victims don’t trust the police — and some suspect the police are involved.

Money dealer Mohammed Issa was kidnapped by men in uniform this year and tortured for seven days until his family paid his kidnappers a $500,000 ransom. “I don’t think anyone, any of the authorities would have done anything for me,” he told FOX News. “I was only released because I paid.”

Experts, including Americans leading the counterinsurgency fight in Afghanistan, say the troubles are greater than just police corruption.

“As you know the U.S. did not get fully involved in training of the police until the summer of 2007,” said U.S. Major General Robert Cone, who is leading U.S. efforts to train Afghan police. “In that one year we’ve been doing this we’ve had tremendous progress, but the fact is we are about six years behind where we are in the army.”

U.S. forces now conduct 95 percent of police training in Afghanistan, taking over efforts that for years had been wobbly and largely unsuccessful. It’s a $7 billion commitment that the U.S. sees as a key ingredient in stabilizing security in the country.

Cone, an expert on counterinsurgency who ran an elite training center for U.S. forces at Ft. Irwin, Calif., pulls no punches in talking about the problems confronting Afghanistan.

“Previous attempts at reforming the police have failed because they were concentrating on training individuals and then firing them out into this cesspool and saying, ‘Stay clean, or stay cleaner,’” he said. “It doesn’t work like that.”

That cesspool of which he spoke is deep and dangerously murky — many members of the Afghan government are said to be linked to the drug trade, including President Hamid Karzai’s brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai.

Cone believes that a properly trained police force could work wonders. “This is in many ways a narco-state,” he told FOX News. “You ask yourself, what would happen if we had a really good police force?”

Where he has placed American mentors — U.S. soldiers who embed with the police and work with them in the field — there has been great progress, and a series of reforms has already improved their conduct.

Police were formerly paid only $80 a month — easy targets for bribes and corruption — so Cone upped their salaries.

He then discovered they weren’t getting paid anyway because local police chiefs or governors took the salaries or a substantial cut. So Cone introduced electronic banking, and police now get a bank card and receive their salaries directly from a bank machine. No middleman at all.

Where he discovered a local police chief had taken the cards for “safe keeping,” he dealt with the chief.

The U.S. Army has also gone into villages and taken the existing police force out for retraining, including replacing police commanders. In five villages, he says, the local population didn’t want their police replaced because they knew them. But soon as the new force had been there for two weeks, he said, “they called and said, ‘OK, we’ll keep these guys now.’”

Not all commanders on the ground are so sanguine. The commander of British forces in Afghanistan said publicly in early October that the war against the Taliban can’t be won. “We’re not going to win this war,” Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith told British media. “It’s about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that’s not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army.”

But insiders say the British have what some refer to as “risk aversion.” British soldiers don’t like to leave their bases because they get attacked by an enemy that is hiding in the local population. There is a lot of talk by American forces that the Brits have lost the art of counterinsurgency.

It’s not all bravado by competitive U.S. forces. U.S. Marines embedded with police in the South have taken losses but have had much success in bringing security even as their “risk-averse” British counterparts talk about losing the war.

While the Brits stay in their bases and come out only for the big missions, Americans have had to go into their backyard and conduct police training, taking losses — but cleaning out the Taliban and slowly winning the real fight to develop security.

Cone is diplomatic in his assessment, and says the British commander probably meant something else.

“I think in fact what he is trying to say is from a purely military perspective it was unwinnable,” he told FOX News. “The fact of the matter is there are other elements like economics and reconstruction, governance, reconciliation that are important.”

As Cone told FOX News, “This is a war; someone that doesn’t constantly check their strategy is not likely to win.”

So Cone checks his strategy, Kabul police chief Paktiawal checks his back a lot, and American commanders, who have had a reality check on just how dirty Afghan police can be, are now trying to overhaul the entire system of recruiting and deployment.

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You can get a beer on Air Force one,  but not if you’re American.

I am not referring to the Air Force One that is the American Presidents Plane,  the Air Force One in this story is a bar at the Kabul military base.

The base houses soldiers from all over the World.  It’s like walking through the UN here.   Living quarters fly flags  from Belgium, from France, from Germany and many more..  Go for a walk and you can here soldiers pass by speaking dozens of different languages.

My producer Maryam Sepehri and Camerman Mal James and I had been standing around for hours on the wind swept freezing tarmac doing a few live reports on breaking news in Afghanistan when we heard about Air Force One.   In fact is was over a scrabble game we played in between live hits with a U.S. major sitting on the ground in front of a helicopter when we heard that soldiers from every Country except America get to have a beer or two after their days are done at Air Force One.

I have heard of this before.  British soldiers get a beer ration of one or two a day depending on where they are. They can’t save them up either so they can drink a lot at the same time.

French soldiers used to have little bottles of wine (like the type you get on an airplane) in their MRE’s – meals ready to eat when deployed in battle.

American soldiers who spend the most time in war zones,  deployments 12 or 15 months, while other NATO soldiers cap missions at 6 months, can’t have a drink.  Nothing.  Not a gin and tonic or a beer.

I am not proposing soldiers in combat head out on missions feeling a little wobbly.
But in instances where troops are bases for these incredibly long periods, and they have a day off,  and where the blowing Afghan sand parches throats like sand paper – you would think they could have a beer a day or two a week or something reasonable?

We tried. After our last live we strolled into Air Force One, for one but there was none.

Closing time – 10pm   It was 10:04.   Yippee – more bottled water.  Afghanistan is such a party.

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Can I fly from Kabul airport to Bagram airport?

That’s how I am spending my morning investigating that question because security in and around Kabul is risky.

Two days ago one of our vehicles we use here was hit by a roadside bomb on the Kabul to Bagram road.

I wasn’t in it because we we’re off doing a story on the Afghan aircore but our local Afghan producer had ringing ears from the blast and shaking hands knowing he had come so close to being seriously injured.

I won’t use his name here because he say’s if he’s stopped by the Taliban and they know he works for a foreign TV company it’s a death sentence.

He doesn’t keep our telephone numbers in his cell phone now because the Taliban stop people on the roads and check their phones for evidence they are in contact with foreign people.

U.S. Commanders say the roads are generally safe but these attacks happen and scare everyone, especially local Afghans who have the perception security is deteriorating.

In the last month three aid workers were shot on the Kandahar to Kabul road.

So can we fly instead of driving 55 minutes to Bagram? It’s a question that say’s alot about security here in Afghanistan.

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• FNC Reporter Dana Lewis and Cameraman Mal James are on a month-long assignment in Afghanistan. For all their blog entries, click over >>

Mal James and Dana Lewis

I heard the bang.

We had been on a dawn air assault by the 101st Airborne into Logar province, watching soldiers hunt for Taliban militants.

There were a few small exchanges of gunfire, but for the most part it was quiet as U.S. soldiers backed up the Afghan National Army as they carried out their random checks of homes for weapons and bad guys.

It seemed almost too quiet and cameraman Mal James and I even walked down a road by ourselves transiting between American army units. But among the villagers are always a few bad guys, say commanders.

The ride into the villages had been exciting and a bit unnerving. Soldiers lined up in squads to board Chinook helos, their twin rotors kicking up huge amounts of gravel and dust.

In the prebrief assault plan, I was told the insurgents often fire rocket propelled grenades at the big birds full of soldiers. And in another war zone, Iraq I covered the downing of a Chinook by RPG fire which claimed the lives of more than two dozen soldiers.

When the word came to move we almost ran onto the waiting Chinooks and then as they landed next to the so called target village, Mal and I were one of the first off the back ramp so we could film the soldiers rushing out and taking up defensive positions.

Not the safest thing to do, but that’s where we need to be to get the best pictures.

And while we were on the ground watching soldiers conduct search missions an Afghan interpreter said messages from the insurgents had been intercepted with one saying “we can’t hit the helicopters” “they’re to high.”

But after three hours on the ground humping over hills and down trails at 8,000 feet, we were ready to go back to forward operating base Shank.

A soldier tossed a smoke cannister into a field and a plume of green smoke marked the LZ for the big chinooks to come back and pick us up.

Womp womp womp – those heavy lift helos can be heard far away as their big blades slice the mountain air. Its a sand storm when they land. Even my ears were full of sand and I dropped to the ground on my knees as the air beat my body with sand and gravel. The engine exhaust makes you feel like someone has you over a searing hot grill as you rush up the open ramp at the back and get inside next to 31 soldiers in this case. Safe and sound as the helo lifted off?

Well just as we were airborne I heard a bang. It sounded like an explosion but a muffled one given the noise of the engines.

But when we landed back at Shank, a captain who had watched us lift off and followed us in asked me how the day went for Fox News.

I replied “Well we didn’t get shot at so I guess it was good.”

And thats when he said “Oh yes you did.”

Apperently insurgents fired an RPG at our helo and that was the bang I heard. It exploded just next to us and slightly under us, but fortunately didn’t damage the helicopter.

It was a better day than I realized. We we’re luckier than I knew at the time as we rode for home on board the big Chinook.

• Photos by Mal James, international cameraman. To read Mal’s blogs, click here >>

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FNC Reporter Dana Lewis and Cameraman Mal James are on a month-long assignment in Afghanistan. For all their blog entries, click over >>

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I remember when the first Gulf War broke out. Reporters who wanted to embed were given physical training tests, and since then, I have always tried to be the reporter who wasn’t the model of “out of shape chain smoking walking heart attack” some of my print friends resemble.

I run. I swim. I do weights.

And it pays off because in any embed you can wind up carrying a 20lbs flak jacket, and humping another 20 lbs or 30 lbs or gear in hot rugged stressful conditions.

I have an embed tomorrow with the 101st Airborne so I was dumb enough to suggest to Tom, our security consultant, why don’t we do a little work out today?

Thing is Tom only knows how to do killer training, so I would pay for the idea.

In a patch of grass behind our Kabul hotel he set up the course.

Here’s my reporter pre-embed routine. You need bricks, chairs and ammo boxes! (Caution — there are duck droppings back there — make sure it’s a day laundry is functional — not Friday prayer day in a Muslim country.)

- 8 stations- 5 circuits
- 10 reps each first circuit
- Then 8
- Then the remaining 3 circuits 5 reps each station

1. Bricks in hand, jump up about a foot and a half and step down.
2. Dips wide grip on concrete step. Touch bottom to grass.
3. Push up on chair. Leaning forward touch nose to back of chair. Feet on ground.
4. Dips on chair. Narrow grip. Feet on ground. Hands on seat of chair.
5. Bricks in both hands- side raise, front raise, shoulder press, curl. 1 2 3 4 and again.
6. Ammo box row. Bent over.
7. Push ups. Feet on chair , hands in grass.
8. Skip rope. 10 times or so.

After the first circuit your heart is racing if you push hard. Your breakfast wants to come up on the second. Gulp some water and stall before you do the rest but you are now doing 5 reps each so your heart rate dips below mach 1 now.

You will survive the upcoming embed air assault because the circuits will make you sleep through the helicopter trip, too exhausted to entertain fear.

It’s not a bad pre-embed work out in Kabul where gyms are few and far between. One big miscalculation- we did it at 1pm. Not especially smart in this climate!

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FNC Reporter Dana Lewis and Cameraman Mal James are on a month-long assignment in Afghanistan. For all their blog entries, click over >>

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Here’s an example of U.S. military strategy the Afghans shake their heads at — and with good reason.

In April, the 24th Marine expeditionary unit was sent into Southern Helmand province for a 7-month deployment to bring law and order to an area that produces 80 percent of the world’s heroin. I embedded with Charlie Company as they fought their way into some little town on the map called Garmsir.

It was supposed to be just a road clearing operation that would lead the Marines further south to set up a forward operating base.

But little Garmsir was so infested with Taliban fighters, the Marines stayed a bit longer, and then a bit longer still, and then the whole 7 months.

Here’s the counter insurgency strategy- fight and kill the insurgents, establish security, bring the locals back to their homes, set up Afghan government presence, and then hand over to the Afghan army and police.

According to a high ranking NCO in the Marines who I met at Bagram airbase as they were heading home this week, Garmshir will likely be in the hands of the Taliban within months!

Why? The British army didn’t take over for the Marines in Garmsir because they don’t have the forces in Helmand they need.

The Afghan army and then Afghan police came into take over but the marine says they started extorting money and bribes from the people and it looks like it will fail.

A mess.

Four Marines died on this deployment. The objective was taken … but is that success?

It’s the same criticism often heard by Afghans here. Areas are taken and then not held long and then the Taliban come back and kill whoever cooperated with U.S. or NATO forces.

That’s why the new American administration had better get behind the call for at least three more brigades to not only take areas away from insurgents but hold them long enough to make sure the terrorists don’t come back.

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FNC Reporter Dana Lewis and Cameraman Mal James are on a month-long assignment in Afghanistan. For all their blog entries, click over >>

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FoB Shank– it’s something to write home about.

This little outpost for U.S. troops in Afghanistan, not far from the Pakistan border in the province of Logar, has everything you could dream about when thinking of Afghanistan:

- Concrete bunkers outside living quarters, because the base gets targeted often by insurgents
- Blown up humvees in the maintenance yards, hit on patrol by IEDs
- Pitch blackness at night so “bad guys” can’t easily see and assault the base. (this summer in Afghanistan insurgents have directly and boldy attacked U.S. bases.)
- And, exclusive to FOX, the new brigade sized U.S. Troop increase for Afghanistan, announced by President Bush (some 35 hundred troops) will be going to FOB Shank say sources. The unit is from the 10th Mountain Division, due to arrive to Shank in January.

Why Shank? Why Logar province?

This is where insurgents recently killed four IRC aid workers on the road. This is where the bodies of three U.S. soldiers (killed by a roadside bomb) were recently taken by insurgents. The insurgents mutilated several of the bodies of the servicemen before they were recovered by the army — and Logar’s governor was just assassinated in Kabul bringing even more problems.

Logar is one of those areas insurgents seem to own and U.S. and NATO forces are trying to bring some security and some economic promise to people.

On a helicopter ride into Shank, a straight talking, convincing Major General Jeffrey Schlosser, Commander of the U.S. 101st Airborne, tells me over the intercom of his Blackhawk, the 40 per cent increase in violence in Eastern Afghanistan is in part caused by stepped up insurgent attacks. But, he also says at least half the level of violence can be sourced to the 101st soldiers chasing down insurgents in places no one has dared to go here.

And General Schlosser makes a prediction: “Dana the coming winter will also have increased violence- because the insurgents wont be allowed to rest and rearm as they have in other years. We’re going to take it to them.”

Like I said- that little FoB Shank and Afghanistan’s Logar province definately has something to write home about.

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FNC Reporter Dana Lewis and Cameraman Mal James are on a month-long assignment in Afghanistan. For all their blog entries, click over >>

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There’s something at 4a.m. scratching in my hotel room walls and on the roof. The pitter patter of little rodent paws?

“Rat,” suggests one of my colleagues at breakfast.

I’m not sure, but it sounded bigger than a mouse and pigeons aren’t awake at that time so yes, I think it’s something nasty.

Why are we staying at this place?

Well it’s actually a very nice inn and after watching the video of the terror attack on the Marriot in Islamabad, we have wisely decided to stay out of high profile hotels known for Western guests.

(And if that rodent feels comfortable on my roof, well I’m glad to share.)

I spent the day chasing Afghanistan’s former attorney general. Abdul Jabbour Sabit cancelled our interview and went into hiding. By phone, he says he’s being persecuted by President Karzai who “won’t tolerate political challenge.”

Sabit was fired from government this year when he announced he would run for president against Karzai next year. And overnight, police tried to arrest him. He says he took refuge at an international army base.
But that he may soon be in detention.

“Tell the world it’s all related to my run for president,” he pleads.

There are new check points in Kabul because of increased threats and attacks by insurgents. And the infighting by those in and now out of government appears to be spilling over in a more public way.

The dissatisfaction by Afghans over deteriorating security and serious questions about the quality of governance are eating away at the credibility of the Karzai government, a little like that persistent creature clawing at my roof each night and nibbling at the wood in the wall.

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I always wanted to win an Olympic medal. This isn’t quite what I was after but its something I will proudly turn over to my 4 year old son Aleksander when i get home. He doesn’t care what its for really, he wants one and fair enough I think he deserves it for being so cute.

This medal was handed out today to journalists who have endured 3 weeks of trying to find interesting stories at the 2008 Beijing games, and believe me for ‘non-rights’ holder we earned it.

In case you don’t know, by paying close to a billion dollars the NBC Peacock network gets to keep all other journalists out of the venues. they owned everything that had a net or a pool or a field or a track even close to it so we at FOX and other media were banned under threat of lawsuit from showing live events or even to a large extent video of the games.

So what we did was stay away from the peacocks commercial hype of the games, the millions of dollars in ads they were bathing in and we focused on different things. we did stories on human rights and poverty in China, and how young athletes aged from 6 years old are drilled in schools to compete for their country and show off the chinese flag. And how China will use these games to promote their idea of a Centralized Government that makes decisions for its 1.3 billion people instead of moving towards a democratic model of government.

And for me, my first trip to China, I was impressed.

The Chinese are friendly people showing real smiles and sincere warmth. And its been a great experience.

Obviously the government if heavy handed about hauling away Tibet protesters, who know very well by unfurling a flag or banner they will be jailed. But for the most part the police and army let us shoot the rest of the country and say what we wanted.

That’s a breakthrough and maybe there will be more open after these games end.

A very connected senior academic here told me his friend who advise the Chinese government can openly criticize decision making and that it’s actually welcomed. And he told me there is a new younger breed of Chinese leaders, and soon the old traditionalist communists die off, the mood in government will change. That the young leaders are thirsty for freedom and see it as not only as a way to make money as capitalists, but something they really embrace.

There’s lots to be positive about at the end of China’s Olympic show. It was orderly. Everything worked. Even the U.S. Olympic Committee heaped praise on the Chinese.

We got to do some terrific stories, eat a lot of Chinese food, and the best part Aleks get an Olympic medal out of it all!

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In two Black Hawk helicopters we hopscotched across the forward operating bases of eastern Afghanistan.

They are manned by American soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division in Country for only a month, but our host Brig. General Mark Milley has studied this country preparing for the mission and brings experience from Iraq to counter insurgency ops here.

Here’s a few of his observations we shared over the intercom of the Black Hawk as we flew together:

1. To win the people away from the insurgency people have to see immediate improvements in their lives in terms of roads and schools and security.

“It’s happening rapidly,” says Milley. “We offer the promise of a better life, all the insurgents offer is death and destruction.”

2. Big Country, Afghans have to feel connected to the Central Govt.

“It’s happening everywhere in the East,” Milley said … but he acknowledges the south of Afghanistan is a problem

3. The Afghan Army now at 70,000 is getting strong and getting good, says Milley.

“They can conduct operations, they lead and we shadow them, their excellent,” he claims.

Here’s a few things Milley and his boss Division Commander Jeff Schlosser admit are considerable challenges:

Across the border into Pakistan a half dozen groups, including Al Qaeda and the Taliban, have become more violent. They’re willing to kill civilians …. and 1,000 people have been killed in Afghanistan so far this year, according to sources. Pakistan continues to be used as a training ground, safe haven and launch pad for the insurgency.

Pakistan’s government is negotiating with these tribal areas, and Major General Schlosser says, “In the past agreements have resulted in more violence.” “It’s frustrating” he says.

Thats because the agreements usually mean the Pakistani Army leaves those areas alone, and the insurgents get even more free rein to hit Afghanistan.

I was struck by two things in conversations with the 101st.

Commanders predict more violence in 2008, not less. Thats in direct contradiction to what out going American General McNeill told us. (McNeill was however talking country-wide)

And, Mcneill’s optimistic claims American and International forces could start going home by 2011, drew skeptic smiles from Gen.  Schlosser who sees the fight here in much longer terms.

Two American generals, two different views of a very complex and changing battle field.

One more note, an American Intel. source told me he sees TWO insurgencies in Afghanistan now. The one in the south, more traditional Taliban. Built on old leaders and tribal elders.

And the one in the East where many old leaders have been eliminated and a new younger more radical breed of insurgents are emerging.

As General Milley notes as we fly east, “They are more brutal vicious and unremorseful than any Country has ever known.”

The 101st will earn those combat Screaming Eagle patches awarded by Milley in the American (formally NATO) FOB’s of Eastern Afghanistan.

P.S. French troops will soon join the 101st in Regional Command East. No longer staying in safe areas like the Germans, but soon deploying in areas of fighting.

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We were embedded with the 24 MEU, (Marine Expeditionary Unit) in Southern Afghanistan.

Charlie Company was involved in a fire fight with a Taliban insurgents hold up in a Madrassa just down the road. Cameraman Malcolm James (left) and I dodged bullets whizzing past, a rocket propelled grenade detonated a couple hundred feet away, and marines from Charlie Company were ducking and returning fire with a 50 cal machine gun.

Now picture this … it’s in the middle of nowhere. Seriously, nowhere. No power. Just a lot of dust and dirt and searing hot temperatures as the fighting is going on.

From our backpacks, Mal and I pulled out what are known as a stream box and BGAN terminal, two little lap top computer sized gizmo’s that changed the way you saw TV this week (below).

Twelve minutes after we video taped the fighting, while the fighting was still on, we had compressed the video and sent it as a kind of email attachment to New York and it was on the air across America on FOX News.

Amazing! We didn’t go back to the office, we were kneeling in the dirt where I think an Afghan goat had been and presto – our video of war was in America!

Again that day … night falls … Taliban a hundred yards away engage the marines. A Cobra helicopter does a strafing run and then destroys the Taliban firing position with a missile. Exciting? It’s seriously close. As the missile passed, we could feel the air displacement and the ground shook under our feet.

Again, that stream box compressed our night vision video and within 10 minutes that dangerous and thrilling moment of TV was in New York being turned around for my next live report.

Marine 1st Sgt. Tony Mass kept asking me when will it be on back home? I kept telling him it was ten minutes after it happened and I think he thought I was joking at first.

No generator. No satellite up link with a truck and engineer. Just some charged up batteries, a back pack and two pieces of gear and we brought to life during a far away, sometimes forgotten war in Afghanistan for Americans at incredible speed.

When the marines finally understood how quickly Fox News had informed their families and the rest of the American public they were in the middle of a fight, one told me, “Yikes! My wife thinks we’re still playing cards at the base. I better call home”.

Don’t worry! That same back pack had us up live telling their story and how none of them were injured.

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A Marine captain sweats. I could see it plainly but maybe his troops didn’t.

They were nervous and he didn’t want to show them he was too. Captain John Moder was more than sweating a little when he called his men together to give them a “pre” battle pep talk in the middle of the desert in Helmand, Afghanistan.

This young Marine had a lot on his mind. It was his first combat mission as a commander of the Charlie Company of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit. It was his first combat mission of a company of soldiers, period.

That “pre” mission rally with a prayer by the Chaplin is more than just talk. For a young captain, you see, the weight of command weighs more than the hundred pound packs the marines carry in one hundred degree weather. The weight is if he make a bad call, one of his men potentially doesn’t come home alive.

Mission – clear an area called Garmsir of Taliban.

The intel says there are booby traps, roadside bombs, snipers and machine gunners all waiting. Moder has to decide how his men move and at what speed into an inevitable clash with an enemy willing to die just to take out one American.

Moder called it right. Not too fast. Let helicopters and artillery take out dug-in insurgents. Don’t force men into the open to quickly defeat an enemy when a few more hours means no one gets hurt.

Death or life for some young American far from home surrounded by poppy fields and desert and a hostile enemy.In the middle of all that, rocket propelled grenades were going off over our heads, bullet rounds whizzed by, and a Cobra helo fired a hellfire missile into a Taliban compound no more than 75 yards from our position. Moder kept awake and focused and like his favorite college sport, lacrosse, dodged the enemy and scored a victory for Charlie Company.

When I was done, I saw a smile in those eyes. The weight was off his shoulders. And when I asked him, “Victory today, John?” he didn’t talk so much about the 30 Taliban killed or the enemy machine gun taken out, or the forward objective taken. He said, “no one’s hurt” and those tired eyes smiled.

Nice work Captain Moder.

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