3,000 sinkholes have appeared in the banks of the Dead Sea and an estimated 3,000 more are ready to burst open. Mike Tobin goes inside the sinkholes in the Dead Sea. Watch video below!

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A stout wind was blowing across the high ground in the West Bank as we watched a group of teenagers attempt to give birth to another Israeli settlement.  They had a few pieces of particle board, studs, a finishing hammer and nails that didn’t look long enough to hold a shack together in this wind.  These are the kids often referred to as the ‘hilltop youth.’  Dedicated young Jews who call the West Bank Judea and Sumaria and believe that God promised the land to them and therefore they are obligated to claim every inch of it. This, despite the fact that the international community considers them part of the problem and their own government considers their actions illegal.

They got two sides of the shack propped up. Young settlers made a futile effort to hold them steady in the wind. Without a ladder, one of the settlers climbed on the shoulders of another and thumped haphazardly with the finishing hammer at nails trying to get the structure solid enough that it would stand on its own. Watching this, my crew and I wondered how long it would be until someone got hurt. It wasn’t long.  A big gust of wind toppled the shack on the settlers and one TV crew.  No one was hurt badly and the settlers went back to work. Realizing they could not build with hammers, nails and wood in this weather, they started stacking rocks to build a structure. That very basic act speaks volumes to the determination of the people involved in the settler movement.

The hilltoppers had coordinated an effort to scramble to the top of 11 mountains from the North to the South of the West Bank and start building settlements on the high ground.  The effort was timed to coincide with the diplomatic blitz the US is executing in Israel. US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell is here, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, National Security Advisor James Jones and Presidential Advisor Dennis Ross are all in Israel or coming soon. They have two issues to address: The Iranian Nuclear threat and freezing the construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

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As Israeli president Shimon Peres makes the first substantive contact between the Netanyahu government and the administration of US President Barack Obama, nothing is more important to him than to begin the relationship with Israel’s most loyal ally on a friendly footing.

That was evident in the comments Peres made Monday to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) “For 60 years, America has been and still is more than just an ally – it is an unusual partner and brave friend.”

The Netanyahu government has been tamping down all discussion of a collision course between Netanyahu even though Obama favors the creation of a Palestinian State and Netanyahu is reluctant to acknowledge the notion of one.

Israel’s deputy foreign Minister, Danny Ayalon, told me Netanyahu is not about to dig in his heels and pick a fight with an American President:

Ayalon: “I believe this will not be an issue, certainly not with our American Friends.”
Tobin: “So, ultimately (we will see) a compromise that agrees with the Obama administration.”
Ayalon: “This is what I would suspect.”

But it’s not going to be as easy as a simple compromise. First of all,  Netanyahu is just not a compromise kind of guy.  His hubris and lecturing of President Clinton caused US envoy Dennis Ross to describe Netanyahu as “immature” and “insufferable.”  Once Netanyahu left the room, according to Ross, Clinton said of Netanyahu, “He thinks he is the superpower and we’re here to do whatever he wants.”  Their relation ship was famously contentious.

It’s likely that Netanyahu ‘matured’ since his first go around as the leader of Israel. He knows Israel gets billions of dollars in aid from the US and he needs US support to discourage Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But Netanyahu still has to answer to the voters of Israel and they didn’t vote for Obama.

They certainly did not vote for the US President’s support of the Arab Peace initiative, which calls for comprehensive peace with all Arab nations in exchange for Israel withdrawing to the borders that existed before the 1967 war.  That means Israel gives the Golan Heights back to Syria and gives most of the West Bank to the Palestinian state (with some land swaps in exchange for land on which the largest Israeli settlements sit).

If you could describe the platform that brought Netanyahu to power for a second time, it is the ‘I told you so’ platform.  Netanyahu left Ariel Sharon’s government as Sharon was preparing to pull out of the Gaza strip.  Netanyahu predicted that if Israel pulled out, Gaza would fall to Islamic radicals and rockets would reach as far as the Israeli port city,  Ashdod.  Sure enough, Hamas took over Gaza and this winter I stood in Ashdod with the rockets raining down.

Combined with the kidnappings and Hezbollah rockets in the North, Israeli voters demonstrated their impatience with the Arab world and voted against concessions to the Arabs, certainly territorial concessions. They cast ballots for bellicose right-wingers who refused to give up and inch of land.  64 out of 120 seats went to right wing parties and Netanyahu was their champion.

***Let me make a quick detour to highlight the irony that Netanyahu, through ordering the blundered assassination of Khaled Meshall in 1997, sparked the popularity and ultimately the empowerment of Hamas. Meshall, now the leader of Hamas, drove Netanyahu to power by firing rockets out of Gaza. (There has to be a life lesson in there somewhere.  If you figure it out, chirp me a tweet @miketobinfox.)***

So, getting back to the issue. If Netanyahu starts looking like he will bend to US wishes and give up land, politicians will bolt from his government like cats out of a bathtub when you turn on the water. The likely outcome would be that he’ll lose his majority in the Knesset and his government will be toppled. It’s possible he could pull off some Sharon-like political wizardry and keep his ship afloat, but an inch of territorial concessions will bring Netanyahu to the brink of joining the long list of Prime Ministers thrown out before serving a full term. Heck, He’s already been down that road once.

So, what’s an experienced Prime Minister to do? Make nice with President Obama, and then delay as long as possible.  Netanyahu is laying the groundwork for that already with his insistence that moderate Palestinians go a step beyond recognizing Israel and recognize it as a ‘Jewish’ state.  That prompted a tirade from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who said, “It is not my job to give a description of the state. Name yourself the Hebrew Socialist republic – it is none of my business.”  Abbas’ chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat, dug out a letter signed by President Truman in 1948. The letter recognizes Israel but the typed words ‘Jewish state’ were crossed out and replaced with the handwritten words ‘State of Israel’.

The demand bought time and backed up the starting point for negotiations. While the public and press chew on that, Israel keeps building settlements in the West Bank, putting a Palestinian state further out of reach.

Benjamin Netanyahu

It’s election day here in Israel and the only guess that anyone can lob out there is that Benjamin Netanyahu will probably end up Prime Minister, but that doesn’t mean he will win the election.

There are a number of forces here at work, which create a very unpredictable dynamic in a multi-party coalition government.

First, let’s talk about Hamas. Back when Ariel Sharon initiated the pullout from the Gaza strip, Netanyahu spoke against it (after initially voting for it).  His Likud party defected from Sharon saying Gaza would become a radical Islamic sub-state and the rockets fired at the Gaza settlements would one day reach towns like Ashkelon.  Netanyahu doesn’t often campaign on the “I told you so” platform. He lets other people say it for him.  However, Israeli voters are so tired of Palestinians and the rocket fire they have gone even farther right than Netanyahu and Likud. Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Betenu (Israel is our Home) party have grown from a far right fringe party to a major player in Israeli politics. They have passed Ehud Barak and the Labor party to poll as the 3rd highest vote getters in Israel.

Tzippi Livni

Here’s where its gets spooky for Netanyahu.  Tzippi Livni and the Kadima party are closely trailing Netanyahu and Likud. Lieberman and Yisrael Betenu could very well split the vote leaving Kadima with more seats in the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) than any single party. Livni would be at the top of the party.

But that doesn’t guarantee she’ll be Prime Minister.

Israeli law says the President, Shimon Peres, appoints a Knesset Member to form a governing coalition based on who will be most able to put together a majority of votes.  That person becomes Prime Minister.  Livni already failed to assemble a majority once and there isn’t much to indicate she would be more successful now.

Avigdor Lieberman

Kadima and Labor, favor ceding more land to make a Palestinian state and a two state peace deal possible.  In light of the continued rocket fire from Hamas, Israeli voters don’t feel like ceding much of anything to the Palestinians.  So, even if Likud doesn’t win, the right could still end up with the most seats in the Knesset.  Therefore, the top right wing politician would be the most able to assemble a majority.  The burden would fall on Peres to appoint Netanyahu, even if he’s not the top vote getter.

Ehud Barak

Still, Netanyahu could end up the clear winner.  The moderate Israeli voting public is remarkably undecided and uninspired by the menu of potential leaders presented to it. Those voters may not show up to vote.  Given the recent conflict in Gaza, The recent war with Hizbollah and the Israeli soldier still held hostage in the Gaza strip, right wingers who favor a hard stance against Palestinians are motivated and they’re arriving at the ballot boxes.

Just when I thought I’d seen every surprise the Middle East had to offer, I showed up on the Gaza/Egypt border.  To understand why this is such a surprise you need to remember that Israel said the war in Gaza had two goals: 1) To stop the rocket fire and 2) To stop the smuggling of rockets into the Gaza strip and close the tunnels through which they are smuggled from the Egyptian side.

So, I arrive at the border and find an entire community digging away like prospectors during the gold rush.  It was all out in the open. They were pulling broken wood out of the opening of tunnels. Diggers, most of them kids, were covered from head-to-toe with sand having done the labor of re-opening the tunnels Israel had just closed with 22 days of a withering air campaign.

One of the first I visited needed just a little patch up work and was back in the business of running goods underground from Egypt. I asked the owner of the tunnel if I could have a look at it he said, “Ahlan wa Sahlan,” welcome to everything.

The problem is that the entrance of the tunnel had been hit. It was about 90 feet down and the ladder was broken away in the middle. One of the little diggers offered to haul my camera and shoot pictures himself but I had a couple of problems with that: 1) He didn’t know how to shoot for TV and 2) I can’t keep a clear conscience and send some kid down to do the dangerous work while I sit up top and wait for the video.  So, down I went. It was really treacherous.  None of the steps on the ladder seemed like they were nailed in and secured very well.  When I got to the broken part, I shot my foot out to little nubs of wood on the opposite site of the chute and climbed like spider man keeping enough pressure to keep from falling.  The fall would have been accented by the exposed nails and broken wood on the way down with a final compliment of digging tools lying at the bottom.

I got down and there was the corridor in the sand. The only thing separating me from Egypt was the darkness of the tunnel and the knowledge that the ground above it had been softened for the past 3 weeks by Israeli air strikes.

The owners of the tunnels never admit they smuggle weapons. They will only tell you they smuggle food and basic necessities like fuel and clothes. But they are capitalists.  When a load shows up on the Egyptian side of the border, they don’t ask what’s in it.  They ask how much they can get to pull it through to Gaza.

For all of Israel’s effort and bloodshed, the smugglers are back in business.   I asked one of them what would it take to stop them from digging. He said, “We’ll stop when the borders open.”